Brewers +109 1* FREE PLAY


This is tremendous value here today for the Brewers against the Reds even if we do not see Ryan Braun in the line up. First of all the bullpen advantage for the Brewers is ver evident as they have an ERA 2 runs less overall on the season. Hitting is about the same especially vs. RHP, but on the road the Brewers are averaging over 5 runs per game overall and vs. RHP. They will face Homer Bailey who has struggled big time this year, but it has been mostly due to bad luck, but his luck is not likely to turn on Thursday as he faces the Brewers who he has struggled against with just 4 quality starts in his last 10 against them with an ERA over 5. Brewers offense has also combined for an .OPS nearing .900 against him.

For the Brewers they will pitch Estrada who is having a nice season to start and his raw stats support that it should continue and that this is not just luck. I love the fact that Estrada is backed by the better bullpen and that he has 4 of 5 quality starts in his career against the Reds. All 3 starts at Great American have been quality where he posts an ERA in the 2's. Expect him to give the Brewers a chance to win here today and with the bullpen success I expect they will.